経済学士論文の理論・実証分析準備〜先行研究探索編〜(『論文』vol.2)

【要約】良い先行研究をササッと探すならテキスト→Google Scholar

【要約】良い先行研究をササッと探すならテキスト→Google Scholar

前回は論文の全体像を考えましたので、今回は理論と実証分析の先行研究探しをしてみます。学士論文は最適な先行研究に当たれば3割は進んだと言って間違い無いのでは無いでしょう。全体感を掴んだ後にテキストを使って先行研究を探します（実際にHandbook of Industrial Organizationを使用）。

今回の研究では、以下の条件を出来るだけ満たす論文が見つかると嬉しいです。（※再掲）
①企業規模とイノベーション頻度に関する論文であること
②英語論文であること
③高名な経済雑誌（The Economistとか）で発表された権威ある論文であること
④2010年以降の論文であること
⑤実証分析との関連性の強い論文であること

①先行研究探しの頼りになりそうなもの（再掲）

⑴Google Scholar

学士論文を書く大学生の味方。世界中の論文をキーワード検索でき、また発行年（2018年以降のものを使いたい）なども条件に入れられるので大変便利です。
https://scholar.google.co.jp/

今回の先行研究探しでもGoogle Scholarは重宝しました（後述）。

⑵Handbook of Industrial Organization

ミクロ経済学（とりわけ産業組織論）を専攻している大学生にとってはバイブル的な存在です。僕の論文のテーマはイノベーション関係ですので、13章の”Innovation”が役に立ちます。最新版は2021年に出ているため、かなり新しい研究や論文も載っています。
https://www.sciencedirect.com/handbook/handbook-of-industrial-organization
↑一般購入すると高いですが、大抵の大学図書館、少し大きな公立図書館に置いてあるハズです。僕の通っている大学ではオンラインサービスでPDFをダウンロードできました。

②論文の候補を出してみる

とりあえず「題名」「発表年」「ジャーナル（権威）」「概要（ABSTRACT）」だけ見て、論文の候補を絞ってしまおうと思います。テキストを読みながらであれば少し内容も追えるメリットがあるので、上記の⑵→⑴の順番でサーチしていきます。

Handbook of Industrial Organizationで探す

一覧

Market Size in Innovation: Theory and Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry
How effective are fiscal incentives for R&D? A review of the evidence
Beggar Thy Neighbor? The In-State, Out-of-State, and Aggregate Effects of R&D Tax Credits
Do R&D tax credits work? Evidence from a panel of countries 1979–1997
Have R&D Spillovers Declined in the 21^st Century?
Are ‘Complementary Policies’ Substitutes? Evidence from R&D Subsidies in the UK
The Effect of State Taxes on the Geographical Location of Top Earners: Evidence from Star Scientists
Financing Innovation: Evidence from R&D Grants
Are Incentives for R&D Effective? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach
R&D Subsidies and Company Performance: Evidence from Geographic Variation in Government Funding Based on the ERDF Population-Density Rule
The Causal Effects of R&D Grants: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity
The impact of R&D subsidy on innovation: evidence from New Zealand firms

1. Market Size in Innovation: Theory and Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry

著者；Daron Acemoglu, Joshua Linn
発表年；2004年
ジャーナル；The Quarterly Journal of Economics
概要；This paper investigates the effect of (potential) market size on entry of new drugs and pharmaceutical innovation. Focusing on exogenous changes driven by U. S. demographic trends, we find a large effect of potential market size on the entry of nongeneric drugs and new molecular entities. These effects are generally robust to controlling for a variety of supply-side factors and changes in the technology of pharmaceutical research.
https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/119/3/1049/1938820?login=false

2. How effective are fiscal incentives for R&D? A review of the evidence

著者；Bronwyn Hall, John Van Reene
発表年；2000年
ジャーナル；Research Policy
概要；This paper surveys the econometric evidence on the effectiveness of fiscal incentives for R&D. We describe the effects of tax systems in OECD countries on the user cost of R&D — the current position, changes over time and across different firms in different countries. We describe and criticize the methodologies used to evaluate the effect of the tax system on R&D behaviour and the results from different studies. In the current (imperfect) state of knowledge we conclude that a dollar in tax credit for R&D stimulates a dollar of additional R&D.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048733399000852

3. Beggar Thy Neighbor? The In-State, Out-of-State, and Aggregate Effects of R&D Tax Credits

著者；Daniel J Wilson
発表年；2006年
ジャーナル；The Review of Economics and Statistics
概要；The proliferation of R&D tax incentives among U.S. states in recent decades raises two questions: (i) Are these tax incentives effective in increasing in-state R&D? (ii) How much of any increase is due to R&D being drawn away from other states? This paper answers (i) “yes” and (ii) “nearly all.” The paper estimates an augmented R&D factor demand model using state panel data from 1981 to 2004. I estimate that the long-run elasticity of in-state R&D with respect to the in-state user cost is about –2.5, while its elasticity with respect to out-of-state user costs is about +2.5, suggesting a zero-sum game among states.
https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article-abstract/91/2/431/57774/Beggar-Thy-Neighbor-The-In-State-Out-of-State-and

4. Do R&D tax credits work? Evidence from a panel of countries 1979–1997

著者；Nick Bloom, Rachel Griffith, John Van Reenen
発表年；2002年
ジャーナル；Journal of Public Economics
概要；This paper examines the impact of fiscal incentives on the level of R&D investment. An econometric model of R&D investment is estimated using a new panel of data on tax changes and R&D spending in nine OECD countries over a 19-year period (1979–1997). We find evidence that tax incentives are effective in increasing R&D intensity. This is true even after allowing for permanent country-specific characteristics, world macro shocks and other policy influences. We estimate that a 10% fall in the cost of R&D stimulates just over a 1% rise in the level of R&D in the short-run, and just under a 10% rise in R&D in the long-run.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S004727270100086X

5. Have R&D Spillovers Declined in the 21st Century?

著者；Brian Lucking, Nicholas Bloom, John Van Reenen
発表年；2020年
ジャーナル；The Journal of Applied Public Economics
概要；Slow growth over the last decade has prompted policy attention towards increasing R&D spending, often via the tax system. We examine the impact of R&D on firm performance, both by the firm’s own investments and through positive (and negative) spillovers from other firms. We analyse panel data on US firms over the last three decades, and allow for time-varying spillovers in both technology space (knowledge spillover) and product market space (product market rivalry). We show that the magnitude of R&D spillovers remains as large in the second decade of the 21^st century as it was in the mid 1980s. Since the ratio of the social return to the private return to R&D is about four to one, this implies that there remains a strong case for public support of R&D. Positive spillovers appeared to temporarily increase in the 1995–2004 digital technology boom. We also show how these micro estimates relate to estimates from the endogenous growth literature and give some suggestions for future work.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1475-5890.12195

6. Are ‘Complementary Policies’ Substitutes? Evidence from R&D Subsidies in the UK

著者；Jacquelyn Pless
発表年；2019年
ジャーナル；Massachusetts Institute of Technology
概要；Governments often subsidize private R&D using both direct subsidies and tax incentives. In this paper, I develop a framework for studying their interdependence, which also provides a test for detecting capital market imperfections. I implement two quasi-experimental research designs to examine firms in the United Kingdom and show that grants and tax credits are complements for small firms but substitutes for larger firms. Higher tax credit rates substantially enhance the effect of grants on R&D investment for small firms, particularly those facing financial constraints, but they reduce it for larger firms. The productivity of small firms also increases. My findings imply that the innovation policy mix should include both support mechanisms for small firms only.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3379256

7. The Effect of State Taxes on the Geographical Location of Top Earners: Evidence from Star Scientists

著者；Enrico Moretti, Daniel J. Wilson
発表年；2017年
ジャーナル；AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
概要；We quantify how sensitive is migration by star scientists to changes in personal and business tax differentials across states. We uncover large, stable, and precisely estimated effects of personal and corporate taxes on star scientists’ migration patterns. The long-run elasticity of mobility relative to taxes is 1.8 for personal income taxes, 1.9 for state corporate income tax, and —1.7 for the investment tax credit. While there are many other factors that drive when innovative individuals and innovative companies decide to locate, there are enough firms and workers on the margin that state taxes matter.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20150508

8. Financing Innovation: Evidence from R&D Grants

著者；Sabrina T. Howell
発表年；2017年
ジャーナル；AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
概要；Governments regularly subsidize new ventures to spur innovation. This paper conducts the first large-sample, quasi-experimental evaluation of R&D subsidies. I use data on ranked applicants to the US Department of Energy’s SBIR grant program. An early-stage award approximately doubles the probability that a firm receives subsequent venture capital and has large, positive impacts on patenting and revenue. These effects are stronger for more financially constrained firms. Certification, where the award contains information about firm quality, likely does not explain the grant effect. Instead, the grants are useful because they fund technology prototyping.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20150808

9. Are Incentives for R&D Effective? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach

著者；Raffaello Bronzini, Eleonora Iachini
発表年；2014年
ジャーナル；AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
概要；This paper evaluates a unique R&D subsidy program implemented in northern Italy. Firms were invited to submit proposals for new projects and only those which scored above a certain threshold received the subsidy. We use a sharp regression discontinuity design to compare the investment spending of subsidized firms with that of unsubsidized firms. For the sample as a whole we find no significant increase in investment. This overall effect, however, masks substantial heterogeneity in the program’s impact. We estimate that small enterprises increased their investments- by approximately the amount of the subsidy they received- whereas larger firms did not.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.6.4.100

10. R&D Subsidies and Company Performance: Evidence from Geographic Variation in Government Funding Based on the ERDF Population-Density Rule

著者；Elias Einiö
発表年；2014年
ジャーナル；The Review of Economics and Statistics
概要；Despite the prevalence of R&D support programs, evaluation studies based on explicit differences in support allocation are rare. In this paper, the identification of the causal effect of R&D support on company performance is based on geographic variation in government funding arising from a population-density rule. I find positive impacts on R&D investment, employment, and sales among the participants who were granted an R&D subsidy as a result of additional aggregate R&D support funding in their region. Although there are no instantaneous impacts on productivity, the study provides evidence of long-term productivity gains.
https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article-abstract/96/4/710/58181/R-amp-D-Subsidies-and-Company-Performance-Evidence

11. The Causal Effects of R&D Grants: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity

著者；Pietro Santoleri, Andrea Mina, Alberto Di Minin, Irene Martelli
発表年；2020年
概要；Direct public support for business R&D is a well-established remedy to market failures, yet empirical evidence on its effectiveness yields conflicting results. The paper investigates the impact of the first European public R&D grant program targeting small and medium enterprises (i.e. the SME Instrument) on a wide range of firm outcomes. We leverage the assignment mechanisms of the policy and employ a sharp regression discontinuity design to provide the broadest quasi- experimental evidence on R&D grants over both geographical and sectoral scopes. Results show that grants trigger sizable impacts. They increase investment, notably in intangibles, and innovation outcomes as measured by cite-weighted patents; they trigger faster growth in assets, employment and revenues; they lead to higher likelihood of receiving follow-on equity financing and lower failure chances. These effects tend to be larger for firms that are smaller and younger, or operating in sectors characterized by higher financial frictions. Furthermore, responses are stronger in countries and regions with lower economic development. The paper provides extensive evidence that the beneficial effects of R&D grants materialize through funding rather than certification effects.

12. The impact of R&D subsidy on innovation: evidence from New Zealand firms

著者；Adam B. Jaffe, Trinh Le
発表年；2017年
ジャーナル；Economics of Innovation and New Technology
概要；This study examines the impact of government subsidy through R&D grants on innovation output for firms in New Zealand. Using a large database that links administrative and tax data with survey data, we find that R&D grants have a stronger effect on more novel innovation (e.g. applying for a patent or introducing new products to the world) than on incremental innovation (e.g. any product innovation) and that larger, project-based grants are more effective at promoting innovation than smaller, non-project-specific grants. There is little evidence that R&D grants have differential effects between smaller (<50 employees) and larger firms.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10438599.2016.1213504